Sez Who?

From Friday's New York Times:

Sales of previously owned homes declined in June at nearly double the rate that economists had expected, according to a report on Thursday.

I heard this report on the morning podcast yesterday as I was driving to work, after having my Tucson realtor say to me a week ago, "I think we've hit the bottom and turned around." When he told me that, I asked if I should let this demanding buyer go and hold on for a couple of months. "No," he replied, "you'd have to hang on for a year, I think."

The New York Times' analysts seem to believe that the bottom isn't even in sight.

And then yesterday I received an e-mail from old boyfriend/retired attorney/real estate investor in Tucson (you remember—the one who couldn't be bothered to wear a clean shirt when he went out with me). He asked when my contract with RE/MAX was expiring and wondered if I was interested in renting my house with an option to buy. I asked where he had been a month ago. We exchanged a few e-mails and he told me the value on one of his houses in my neighborhood had dropped from $285K to $218K in a year-and-a-half. His business partner's house, on the same street, dropped $100K in value in two years. He must be thankful his parents left trust funds for his kids as college tuition looms around the corner.

So whom do you believe? There's so much input, so many conflicting reports.

I'm very close to having amassed my $40K for the August 14 closing. It's painful as hell, but once I sign those papers and wire that money off to Tucson, I will breathe a very big sigh of relief. I think we will probably pop the cork on a bottle of champagne here in this lovely Youngstown home, and toast the end of the Tucson era.

And then I will plod along, dollar by dollar, and dig myself out of this hole.